44 comments
28 forecasters
Will a Llama model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?
18%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 18% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Sep 16, 2024
Closes:Sep 17, 2024
Resolved:Oct 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 17, 2024
Include Bots:Yes
Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?
30% chance
1.4k
Will OpenAI release an open-source model that ranks in the top 35 of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard before October 2025?
20% chance
58
Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?
126 forecasters