M

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

You're now enjoying a rewritten, open-source Metaculus, with a range of improvements and new opportunities for collaboration. Learn more, and share your feedback and questions here

Question

[Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024?

Resolved :No
Total Forecasters34
Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
80.5
Community Peer Score
26.2
median 1.0%mean 5.1%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

Authors:
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:

Comments

? comments