Question

Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?

Resolved:No

57 comments57

Total Forecasters29

Community Prediction

16.7%

(5% - 35%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 16.7%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Community Peer Score

0.0

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Sep 20, 2024

Closes:

Sep 21, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 21, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Gavin Newsom's Chances of Beating Kamala Harris in 2028

Newsweek•Jun 20, 2025

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Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?

Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?

41%

Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee for President of the United States?

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Sep 20, 2024

Closes:

Sep 21, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 21, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Gavin Newsom's Chances of Beating Kamala Harris in 2028

Newsweek•Jun 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?

Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?

41%