171 forecasters

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030?

11%chance

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Authors:

pashka24 Emi anna.k.hennig EdwardStoppard

Opened:

Sep 21, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 22, 2024

The Sharm el-Sheikh Farce: Trump’s Gaza “Peace Plan” – Socialist Project

Socialist Project•Nov 1, 2025

Trump’s ability to counter Netanyahu’s spoiler tactics in public may have been key to advancing a ceasefire in Gaza

The Conversation•Oct 31, 2025

Gaza risks sliding into deadly limbo of ‘no war, no peace’, top Qatari diplomat warns

Guardian•Oct 31, 2025

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