Authors:
Opened:Sep 20, 2024
Closes:Oct 31, 2024
Resolved:Oct 10, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 23, 2024
When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?
Aug 2048
(May 2033 - 2121)
Aug 2048
(May 2033 - 2121)
109 forecasters
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Jan 2031
(23 Aug 2026 - Aug 2040)
Jan 2031
(23 Aug 2026 - Aug 2040)
181 forecasters
Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?
7% chance
59