12 comments
21 forecasters
How much will GiveWell update its cost-effectiveness estimate of GiveDirectly based on the results of the 2023-2024 follow-up of the Cash Transfers Study by UC Berkeley?
Latest estimate
>50%
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Oct 23, 2024
Closed:Jul 1, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Dec 15, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 25, 2024
Will the study of supplying eyeglasses to near-vision impaired adults in Kenya and India find a boost to household consumption of the following levels?
17 forecasters
Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?
32% chance
39
Will the study of oral rehydration solution and zinc distribution in Sierra Leone find a statistically significant increase in ORS/zinc usage by the recipients?
90% chance
56