Question

How much will GiveWell update its cost-effectiveness estimate of GiveDirectly based on the results of the 2023-2024 follow-up of the Cash Transfers Study by UC Berkeley?

10 comments10

Total Forecasters6

Community Prediction35.7

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<-25

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>50

...

1.4%

12.68

35.69

>50

28.2%

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Forecast With GiveWell

Economy & Business

Is Urban Outfitters' 27% Stock Surge Sustainable?

Forbes•Dec 2, 2024

Charitable Giving In The Workplace Is Back–And Just In Time

Forbes•Dec 2, 2024

What's the gold price forecast for December 2024?

CBS•Dec 3, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the study of supplying eyeglasses to near-vision impaired adults in Kenya and India find a boost to household consumption of the following levels?

Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?

32%

Will the study of oral rehydration solution and zinc distribution in Sierra Leone find a statistically significant increase in ORS/zinc usage by the recipients?

90%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Forecast With GiveWell

Economy & Business

Is Urban Outfitters' 27% Stock Surge Sustainable?

Forbes•Dec 2, 2024

Charitable Giving In The Workplace Is Back–And Just In Time

Forbes•Dec 2, 2024

What's the gold price forecast for December 2024?

CBS•Dec 3, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the study of supplying eyeglasses to near-vision impaired adults in Kenya and India find a boost to household consumption of the following levels?

Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?

32%

Will the study of oral rehydration solution and zinc distribution in Sierra Leone find a statistically significant increase in ORS/zinc usage by the recipients?

90%