Question
How much will GiveWell update its cost-effectiveness estimate of GiveDirectly based on the results of the 2023-2024 follow-up of the Cash Transfers Study by UC Berkeley?
Total Forecasters21
Community Prediction
>50%
(49.6% - >50%)
Make a Prediction
CDF
This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <-25% | 0.4% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 49.58% | — |
| median | >50% | — |
| upper 75% | >50% | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >50% | 74.4% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Oct 23, 2024
Closed:Jul 1, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jul 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 25, 2024
Authors:
Opened:Oct 23, 2024
Closed:Jul 1, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jul 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 25, 2024