12 comments
88 forecasters
Will there be 10 million autonomous cars in the US before there are 1 million in-car augmented reality users?
67%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 67% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jul 15, 2016
Closes:Jun 15, 2017
Resolved:Jan 31, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 16, 2016
Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?
94% chance
46
When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?
12 forecasters
Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?
66% chance
41