Question
When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?
Total Forecasters12
Community Prediction
05 Nov 2025
(23 Apr 2025 - 09 Jul 2026)
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CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <01 Oct 2024 | 1.7% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 23 Apr 2025 | — |
| median | 05 Nov 2025 | — |
| upper 75% | 09 Jul 2026 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >01 Jan 2030 | 0.4% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Oct 1, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 4, 2024
Authors:
Opened:Oct 1, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 4, 2024