63 forecasters

Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?

7%chance

Authors:

pashka24 Emi anna.k.hennig EdwardStoppard

Opened:

Oct 1, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 4, 2024

Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?

Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2030?

Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?