21 comments
160 forecasters
Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?
100result: Yes
1,000result: Yes
3,0002%
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 19, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Will state-based conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?
20% chance
33
How many US military personnel will be killed by Iran or its proxies before 2026?
45 forecasters
Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?
1% chance
139