94 comments
179 forecasters
Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?
1%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Oct 8, 2024
Closes:Dec 29, 2024
Resolved:Jan 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 11, 2024
Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?
30% chance
1.4k
Will OpenAI release an open-source model that ranks in the top 35 of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard before October 2025?
20% chance
58
Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?
126 forecasters