Question

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

12 comments12

Total Forecasters45

Community Prediction

94%

(80% - 95%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 94%

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Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Oct 11, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2075

Scheduled resolution:

Mar 1, 2076

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 11, 2024

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Will the 2030 light duty pure battery electric vehicle sales share exceed 35% in the US through November 2030?

20%

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Oct 11, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2075

Scheduled resolution:

Mar 1, 2076

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 11, 2024

Technology

How Tesla and Waymo’s radically different robotaxi approaches will shape the industry

One America•Aug 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will a majority of these US cities have autonomous public transit systems?

Mar 2041

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

May 2034

Will the 2030 light duty pure battery electric vehicle sales share exceed 35% in the US through November 2030?

20%