19 forecasters

[Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid?

91%chance

91%chance

ResolvedYes

ResolvedYes

The community gave this a 91% chance, and it resolved Yes.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Oct 16, 2024

Closes:

Oct 20, 2024

Resolved:

Oct 21, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 17, 2024

🏆 2024 Leaderboard

Moldova’s election delivers lessons to Europe on countering Russian interference

CNN•Sep 30, 2025

The pro-European party won Moldova’s election but obstacles to join the EU remain

Guardian•Sep 29, 2025

Only EU membership will secure Moldova’s future

Spectator (UK)•Sep 29, 2025

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