Question
What will be RCP's polling bias for Trump based on national polls in the month before the 2024 election?
Resolved:-3.053Total Forecasters4
Community Prediction
-0.0731
(-1.52 - 1.71)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <-5.5 | 0.3% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | -1.518 | — |
| median | -0.07313 | — |
| upper 75% | 1.709 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >5.5 | 2.7% | — |
What was the final result?-3.053
Community Baseline Score
-46.6
Community Peer Score
1.0
Authors:
Opened:Oct 21, 2024
Closes:Nov 5, 2024
Resolves:Jan 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 24, 2024
Authors:
Opened:Oct 21, 2024
Closes:Nov 5, 2024
Resolves:Jan 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 24, 2024
