Question

Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS) be higher Year-over-Year on October 30, 2024?

Resolved:No

62 comments62

Total Forecasters28

Community Prediction

52%

(40% - 61.7%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 52%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

9.6

Community Baseline Score

-28.4

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Oct 21, 2024

Closes:

Oct 22, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 31, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 22, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

What will be the maximum close value of the volatility index (VIX) for the latter half of 2025 and 2026?

48.9

Will the S&P 500 Index increase over the year 2025?

83%

Will the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index exceed its 2020 peak before 2029?

85%

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Oct 21, 2024

Closes:

Oct 22, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 31, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 22, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

What will be the maximum close value of the volatility index (VIX) for the latter half of 2025 and 2026?

48.9

Will the S&P 500 Index increase over the year 2025?

83%

Will the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index exceed its 2020 peak before 2029?

85%