23 comments
52 forecasters
How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?
Current estimate
84 cases
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Authors:
Opened:Oct 22, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 10, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 24, 2024
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Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
1.2% chance
97
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?
5% chance
206
If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?
0.858%
(0.399 - 1.48)
0.858%
(0.399 - 1.48)
40 forecasters