Question
How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?
Total Forecasters51
Community Prediction
116 cases
(76.5 cases - 206 cases)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 76.51 | — |
| median | 116.1 | — |
| upper 75% | 206.1 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >5000 | 2.4% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Oct 22, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 10, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 24, 2024
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
1.2%
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?
4%
If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?
1.17
Authors:
Opened:Oct 22, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 10, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 24, 2024
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
1.2%
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?
4%
If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?
1.17