Question
How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024?
Resolved:Above upper boundTotal Forecasters55
Community Prediction
36.9
(34.7 - 39.2)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 34.68 | — |
| median | 36.91 | — |
| upper 75% | 39.24 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >40 | 19.8% | — |
What was the final result?Above upper bound
Community Baseline Score
68.1
Community Peer Score
34.9
Authors:
Opened:Oct 30, 2024
Closes:Dec 11, 2024
Resolves:Jan 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 2, 2024
Authors:
Opened:Oct 30, 2024
Closes:Dec 11, 2024
Resolves:Jan 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 2, 2024