Question

Will AI outperform superforecasters before 2030?

1 comment1

Total Forecasters20

Community Prediction

42%

(38% - 69%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 42%

This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved

Authors:

nor

Opened:

Oct 30, 2024

Closed:

Nov 21, 2024

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 30, 2024

Threshold 2030 Econ Forecasting

Economy & Business

Artificial Intelligence

How AI Will Rewrite The Rules Of Weather Probability

Forbes•Jul 1, 2025

Today’s AI Could Make Pandemics 5 Times More Likely

Time•Jul 1, 2025

OpenAI and Microsoft are dueling over AGI. These real-world tests will prove when AI is really better than humans.

Business Insider•Jun 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

90%

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Dec 2030

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

63%

Authors:

nor

Opened:

Oct 30, 2024

Closed:

Nov 21, 2024

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 30, 2024

Threshold 2030 Econ Forecasting

Economy & Business

Artificial Intelligence

How AI Will Rewrite The Rules Of Weather Probability

Forbes•Jul 1, 2025

Today’s AI Could Make Pandemics 5 Times More Likely

Time•Jul 1, 2025

OpenAI and Microsoft are dueling over AGI. These real-world tests will prove when AI is really better than humans.

Business Insider•Jun 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

90%

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Dec 2030

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

63%