1 comment
20 forecasters
Will AI outperform superforecasters before 2030?
42%chance
This question is closed for predictions.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Oct 30, 2024
Closed:Nov 21, 2024
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 30, 2024
Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?
91% chance
77
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Nov 2030
(27 Jul 2026 - Mar 2040)
Nov 2030
(27 Jul 2026 - Mar 2040)
181 forecasters
Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?
70% chance
134