30 comments
51 forecasters
How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024?
12-15result: Yes
0-30.1%
4-50.1%
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Nov 7, 2024
Closes:Dec 15, 2024
Resolved:Nov 22, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 10, 2024
Will eight or more of the fifteen heads of the executive departments be serving in an acting role on December 31, 2026?
5% chance
140
How many members of the Trump cabinet will remain in their positions continuously until January 20, 2029?
6 members
(4 - 8)
6 members
(4 - 8)
91 forecasters
Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?
29 forecasters