Question
How many biological humans will be alive on December 31, 2300, conditional on there being more than 500 Million?
Total Forecasters69
Community Prediction
10.5B people
(3.21B people - 27.8B people)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 3.208B | — |
| median | 10.53B | — |
| upper 75% | 27.81B | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >100B | 11.4% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jul 26, 2019
Closes:Dec 31, 2300
Scheduled resolution:Jan 16, 2301
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 28, 2019
Authors:
Opened:Jul 26, 2019
Closes:Dec 31, 2300
Scheduled resolution:Jan 16, 2301
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 28, 2019