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How many biological humans will be alive on the 31st of December 2300, conditional on there being more than 500M?
Long term population development is of great importance in questions about the far future. The United Nations write in a report from 2004:
In these projections, world population peaks at 9.22 billion in 2075. Population therefore grows slightly beyond the level of 8.92 billion projected for 2050 in the 2002 Revision, on which these projections are based. However, after reaching its maximum, world population declines slightly and then resumes increasing, slowly, to reach a level of 8.97 billion by 2300, not much different from the projected 2050 figure.
In this question, it is asked: How many biological humans will be alive on the 31st of December 2300, conditional on there being more than 500M?
The resolution comes from the latest report by the United Nations (or a comparable organisation representing the human species) before january 16th, 2300. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source. The number should include all humans alive, not only humans living on planet earth.
The question resolves ambiguously if there are less than 500M humans alive at the time of resolution.
For these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)
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