Question

Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 March 2025?

Resolved:No

3 comments3

Total Forecasters48

Community Prediction

0.3%

(0.1% - 2%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.3%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

93.3

Community Peer Score

10.0

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Nov 7, 2024

Closes:

Feb 28, 2025

Resolves:

Mar 7, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 10, 2024

Politics

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Plurality of Americans Believe 'Civil War' Likely in Next Decade—Poll

Newsweek•Jun 17, 2025

When the Military Comes to American Soil

Atlantic•Jun 17, 2025

Will the public side with the protesters in LA? Here are some lessons from history | Musa al-Gharbi

Guardian•Jun 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in America before 2031?

66%

Will there be major civil unrest or martial law in the Philippines in 2025?

15%

How many fatalities will there be in the US in relation to protests and violent conflict from June 14 to July 7, 2025?

4.62