26 comments
28 forecasters
Will the USDA's Center for Veterinary Biologics grant a license for a highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 vaccine in dairy cattle before July 1, 2025?
0.4%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 0% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Nov 14, 2024
Closes:Jun 30, 2025
Resolved:Jul 19, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 16, 2024
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Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?
2% chance
81
Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?
2% chance
253
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
1.2% chance
97