15
96 forecasters
Will the United States and Iran sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029?
50%chance
Top Key Factors
Possible death of Khamenei
Increases Likelihood
Trump discusses expansion of drug cartel crackdown, issues grim warning to Iranfoxnews.com•Jan 7, 2026
Decreases Likelihood
Possible death of Khamenei
Increases Likelihood
Trump discusses expansion of drug cartel crackdown, issues grim warning to Iranfoxnews.com•Jan 7, 2026
Decreases Likelihood