10 comments
49 forecasters
Will the United States and Iran sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029?
25%chance
The community sees this as a toss-up.
Forecast Timeline
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Dec 10, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2028
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2029
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 13, 2024
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will at least two of the United States, Russia or China mutually agree to decrease their nuclear stockpiles before 2026?
0.7% chance
57
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?
1.2% chance
1.1k
Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?
25% chance
49