Question
When will the first human baby from stem cell-derived gametes be born?
Total Forecasters72
Community Prediction
Jan 2034
(26 Apr 2029 - Jun 2039)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 26 Apr 2029 | — |
| median | Jan 2034 | — |
| upper 75% | Jun 2039 | — |
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Aug 19, 2019
Closes:Dec 31, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2049
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 21, 2019
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
When will we see the first live birth from human in vitro gametogenesis?
Sep 2032
When will the first same-sex couple have a child that is produced by the sperm of one parent and the egg of the other?
Jun 2048
When will the first human baby be born, whose embryo was polygenically selected from a cohort of at least 50 simultaneously obtained ova?
Oct 2034
Authors:
Opened:Aug 19, 2019
Closes:Dec 31, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2049
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 21, 2019
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
When will we see the first live birth from human in vitro gametogenesis?
Sep 2032
When will the first same-sex couple have a child that is produced by the sperm of one parent and the egg of the other?
Jun 2048
When will the first human baby be born, whose embryo was polygenically selected from a cohort of at least 50 simultaneously obtained ova?
Oct 2034