10 comments
15 forecasters
Will Indian authorities report that two hundred million or more pilgrims have attended Kumbh Mela?
99.9%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 100% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Dec 1, 2024
Closes:Feb 26, 2025
Resolved:Feb 10, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 4, 2024
Will in-line chlorination devices serve at least 5.8 million people in Andhra Pradesh at the end of the 4th year of Evidence Action's program?
74% chance
25
Will in-line chlorination devices serve at least 6.7 million people in Madhya Pradesh at the end of the 4th year of Evidence Action's program?
50.2% chance
18
Will there be a heat wave that kills at least one million people in a single month before 2050?
35% chance
32