7 comments
148 forecasters
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be confirmed by the US Senate as Secretary of Health and Human Services before April 1, 2025?
99.9%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 100% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Nov 27, 2024
Closes:Mar 26, 2025
Resolved:Feb 13, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 1, 2024
Will any HHS study claim to show evidence of a link between vaccines and autism before January 21, 2029?
15% chance
22
Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?
1% chance
89
Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?
25% chance
81