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32 comments
79 forecasters

When will the first organ from a non-primate be successfully transplanted into a human?

community
08 Feb 2022 10:13
result
06 Feb 2022 08:00
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Anthony
Opened:Aug 31, 2019
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Resolved:Feb 6, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 2, 2019
Natural Sciences
Health & Pandemics
Daily Mail logo
FDA approves first clinical trials transplanting pig organs into humans
Daily Mail•Sep 9, 2025
Independent logo
Athletic trainer receives experimental pig kidney transplant ahead of new human trials
Independent•Sep 8, 2025
New York Post logo
Another New Hampshire man gets a pig kidney as transplant trials are poised to start
New York Post•Sep 8, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will pig-to-human xenotransplantation become a routine medical procedure?

Oct 2043
(Feb 2037 - Jul 2048)
Oct 2043
(Feb 2037 - Jul 2048)
11 forecasters

Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?

74% chance
83

When will the first human head transplant occur?

>Sep 2047
(Aug 2041 - >Sep 2047)
>Sep 2047
(Aug 2041 - >Sep 2047)
35 forecasters
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