32 comments
79 forecasters
When will the first organ from a non-primate be successfully transplanted into a human?
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Aug 31, 2019
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Resolved:Feb 6, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 2, 2019
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When will pig-to-human xenotransplantation become a routine medical procedure?
Oct 2043
(Feb 2037 - Jul 2048)
Oct 2043
(Feb 2037 - Jul 2048)
11 forecasters
Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?
74% chance
83
When will the first human head transplant occur?
>Sep 2047
(Aug 2041 - >Sep 2047)
>Sep 2047
(Aug 2041 - >Sep 2047)
35 forecasters