Question

Will Bashar al-Assad be President of Syria on December 31, 2024?

Resolved:No

60 comments60

Total Forecasters29

Community Prediction

70%

(50% - 82%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 70%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

-6.1

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Dec 5, 2024

Closes:

Dec 6, 2024

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 6, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Syria to hold parliamentary elections in September, first since fall of Assad regime

PBS NewsHour•Jul 28, 2025

Syria to hold parliamentary ballot in September, first elections since Assad’s removal

CNN•Jul 28, 2025

French court to decide if al-Assad can be tried for Syrian chemical attacks

Al Jazeera•Jul 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Syria be partitioned into new, internationally recognized sovereign states before 2040?

12%

Will IS return to Syria before 2031?

50%

Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?

23%

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Dec 5, 2024

Closes:

Dec 6, 2024

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 6, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Syria to hold parliamentary elections in September, first since fall of Assad regime

PBS NewsHour•Jul 28, 2025

Syria to hold parliamentary ballot in September, first elections since Assad’s removal

CNN•Jul 28, 2025

French court to decide if al-Assad can be tried for Syrian chemical attacks

Al Jazeera•Jul 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Syria be partitioned into new, internationally recognized sovereign states before 2040?

12%

Will IS return to Syria before 2031?

50%

Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?

23%