46 forecasters

Will Israel be found guilty in South Africa's genocide case by the ICJ before January 1, 2027?

36%chance

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Authors:

Opened:

Dec 25, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2027

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 28, 2024

Mass slaughter in Gaza stands apart from other genocides, Chris Sidoti says – ‘People cannot escape’

Guardian•Sep 30, 2025

What is Israel’s endgame in Africa?

Al Jazeera•Sep 30, 2025

Labour conference to vote on whether Israel is committing genocide in Gaza

Guardian•Sep 29, 2025

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