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Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

1.2%chance

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Authors:

Opened:

Dec 20, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 1, 2025

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UN nuclear chief says agreement provides for access to all of Iran's nuclear facilities

Independent•Sep 11, 2025

Iran Issues Warning Over Nuclear Agreement

Newsweek•Sep 11, 2025

Iran Reportedly Has 'No Path' to Nuclear Breakout, Strikes New Inspections Deal With IAEA

PJ Media•Sep 10, 2025

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