conditional
condition

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

23 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

15%
15%

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

0%
0%
7

Make a Prediction

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

50%
community: 15%

Forecast Timeline

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
RyanBeck
Opened:Dec 13, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
2024-2025 Leaderboard