34 comments
109 forecasters
Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?
12%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 12% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Sep 28, 2019
Closes:Dec 30, 2020
Resolved:Jan 3, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 30, 2019
Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?
40% chance
40
Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?
2% chance
75
Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?
10% chance
60