58 comments
123 forecasters
When will at least 20 US states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Oct 11, 2019
Closes:Oct 5, 2030
Resolved:Dec 9, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 13, 2019
How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045?
24.9 states
(17.4 - 40.5)
24.9 states
(17.4 - 40.5)
38 forecasters
Will marijuana be legal for recreational use in a supermajority of these strongly Republican US states before 2041?
90% chance
90
When will legal international trade in recreational cannabis take place?
23 Apr 2030
(29 Dec 2028 - Jan 2032)
23 Apr 2030
(29 Dec 2028 - Jan 2032)
10 forecasters