27 comments
1.3k forecasters
Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?
55%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 55% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jan 10, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Resolved:Apr 25, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 1, 2025
Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?
22% chance
47
Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?
75% chance
148
Will Rob Long believe there is conscious AI before 2030?
60% chance
28