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Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?
A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to Wikipedia:
The main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets.
The competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth.
By contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. According to Wikipedia:
A heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.
A skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.
Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?
This resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.
The payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface.
Positive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.
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