78 comments
2.1k forecasters
Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?
10%chance
4 pp this week
Authors:
Opened:Jan 10, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 1, 2025
Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between India and Pakistan before 2027?
8% chance
46
Five years after AGI, will there have been a World War III?
8% chance
60
Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?
49% chance
87