1.3k forecasters

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

25%chance

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Authors:

Opened:

Jan 10, 2025

Closes:

Dec 30, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 14, 2025

ACX 2025 Prediction Contest

Kiko Llaneras Tournament 🔮

Artificial Intelligence

🏆 2025 Leaderboard

5 interesting quotes from Sam Altman's livestream

Business Insider•Oct 29, 2025

Sam Altman says OpenAI will have a ‘legitimate AI researcher’ by 2028

TechCrunch•Oct 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

Will OpenAI surpass 15 million business users before 2030?