30 comments
1.3k forecasters
Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?
10%chance
3 pp this week
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jan 10, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 1, 2025
Will the Christian Democratic Union of Germany announce that it is open to negotiating a coalition with the Alternative for Germany before 2030?
20% chance
69
Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?
10% chance
58
Which party will lead the next German government?
8 forecasters