1.1k forecasters

Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?

2%chance

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Authors:

Opened:

Jan 10, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 1, 2025

ACX 2025 Prediction Contest

🏆 2025 Leaderboard

As Trump touts international force to stabilize Gaza, key questions remain

NBC•Oct 31, 2025

Gaza risks sliding into deadly limbo of ‘no war, no peace’, top Qatari diplomat warns

Guardian•Oct 31, 2025

Amit Segal on the Future of Governance in Gaza - The New York Times

New York Times•Oct 31, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Israel Take Control of Gaza City before Jan 20, 2029?

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030?

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?