Question

Will the US government maintain a public list of incidents related to AI safety on January 1, 2030?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters37

Community Prediction

58.5%

(43% - 75%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 58.5%

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Authors:

sandman

Opened:

Jan 28, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 15, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 31, 2025

AGI 2030 Readiness Index

Artificial Intelligence

AI Willing to Kill Humans to Avoid Being Shut Down, Report Finds

Newsweek•Jun 22, 2025

Making AI Safe for Mental Health Use

Psychology Today•Jun 22, 2025

The ‘OpenAI Files’ push for oversight in the race to AGI

TechCrunch•Jun 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?

25%

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

15%

Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?

70%