Question

What percentage of AI alignment experts surveyed in 2029 will consider alignment techniques at the time to be sufficient?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters33

Community Prediction

30.6%

(15.8% - 51.5%)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	15.77%	30.57%	51.51%
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	15.77%	—
median	30.57%	—
upper 75%	51.51%	—

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Authors:

sandman

Opened:

Jan 23, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 15, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 23, 2025

AGI 2030 Readiness Index

Artificial Intelligence

Sam Altman says he was largely right in predicting how quickly AI would develop — but not how people would react

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Will every frontier AI lab collaborate with at least one other frontier lab on AI alignment or safety research, on January 1, 2030?

16%

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

75%

What percentage of Americans will consider AI or advancement of computers/technology to be the most important problem in January 2028?

6.55

Authors:

sandman

Opened:

Jan 23, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 15, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 23, 2025

AGI 2030 Readiness Index

Artificial Intelligence

Sam Altman says he was largely right in predicting how quickly AI would develop — but not how people would react

Business Insider•Jun 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will every frontier AI lab collaborate with at least one other frontier lab on AI alignment or safety research, on January 1, 2030?

16%

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

75%

What percentage of Americans will consider AI or advancement of computers/technology to be the most important problem in January 2028?

6.55