Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
Log in
Sign Up
3
51
forecasters
1
3 comments
51 forecasters
AGI 2030 Readiness Index
1 more...
Will every frontier AI lab collaborate with at least one other frontier lab on AI alignment or safety research, on January 1, 2030?
Predict
Follow
share
embed
11%
chance
Timeline
Histogram
1d
1w
2m
all
Comments (3)
Timeline
Key Factors (0)
Question Info
Similar Questions
No key factors yet
Add some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
15 comments
41 forecasters
Leading Lab No Safety
2026
result:
Yes
2030
28%
2036
20%
4 comments
63 forecasters
Frontier model released in 2029 without third-party evals?
75%
chance
5 comments
90 forecasters
Before 2029, will a new AI safety org form with 3+ G7 members?
49%
chance
5 comments
37 forecasters
AI alignment experts consider alignment techniques enough?
Current estimate
19.8%
21 comments
110 forecasters
US-China AGI-limiting treaty signed before 2030?
5%
chance
7 comments
113 forecasters
Will the US government mandate security clearance from the employees that lead the research and development of the top models at OpenAI, Deepmind, or Anthropic before 2028?
44%
chance
10 comments
41 forecasters
Number of New Leading AI Labs
0 or 1
49.8%
2 or 3
32.9%
4 or 5
11.9%
6 or 7
3.2%
2 others
1 comment
167 forecasters
AI safety checks mandated before Jan 20, 2029?
34%
chance