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978 forecasters

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978 forecasters

Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2025

Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?

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AI system beat human pros in forecasting tournament by 2030?

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Human/Machine Intelligence Parity by 2040?

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Will Musk triple wealth of the 2nd richest person by 2028?

2 comments118 forecasters

AI-authored paper published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

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General AI solves International Math Olympiad

Current estimate

7 comments45 forecasters

Will Musk 4X or more wealth of 2nd richest person by 2030?

27 comments114 forecasters

By 2030, will general-purpose robot learning new tasks be >$20k?