Question
What will be the difference between the Arena Score of o3 and the next best model on Chatbot Arena, on April 5, 2025?
Resolved:Below lower boundTotal Forecasters90
Community Prediction
<-30
(<-30 - -24.8)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <-30 | 66.7% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | <-30 | — |
| median | <-30 | — |
| upper 75% | -24.83 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >30 | 1.9% | — |
What was the final result?Below lower bound
Community Baseline Score
85.7
Community Peer Score
115.7
Authors:
Opened:Jan 27, 2025
Closes:Mar 15, 2025
Resolves:Apr 5, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 3, 2025
Authors:
Opened:Jan 27, 2025
Closes:Mar 15, 2025
Resolves:Apr 5, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 3, 2025