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26
155
forecasters
19
26 comments
155 forecasters
Economy & Business
3 more...
Who will first land a person on Mars?
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Latest estimate
1.98
1.98
(1.09 - 2.11)
Forecast Timeline
1d
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2m
all
Forecast Timeline
1d
1w
2m
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Comments (26)
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3 comments
61 forecasters
First Group to Land Person on Mars
SpaceX
72%
NASA
23%
CNSA
20%
ESA
1%
Roscosmos
1%
10 comments
37 forecasters
SpaceX lands stuff on Mars by 2035?
An uncrewed craft
48%
At least one person
4%
At least one person—and return them to Earth
1.6%
Elon Musk
0.1%
3 comments
126 forecasters
Crewed mission beyond Earth-Moon system
1%
chance
14 comments
47 forecasters
Humans sent to Mars before 2036?
15%
chance
11 comments
117 forecasters
Martian Human Population in 2050
Current estimate
2.29 people
43 comments
68 forecasters
First country with more off-Earth territory
United States
55%
China
35%
Israel
7.5%
India
6%
5 others
2 comments
23 forecasters
Date Mars population 100?
Current estimate
2085
5 comments
33 forecasters
When will first private citizen become off-Earth resident?
Current estimate
May 2069