44 comments
47 forecasters
Will lossless compression fail to be accepted as a macrosociology model selection criterion?
54%chance
This question is closed for predictions.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Dec 18, 2019
Closed:Nov 20, 2020
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 20, 2019
Before January 1, 2026, what will be the highest compression factor achieved for the Hutter Prize?
9.04
(9.01 - 9.07)
9.04
(9.01 - 9.07)
38 forecasters
Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?
15% chance
34
Will high-impact research on reducing the sample complexity of Large Language Model pretraining be forthcoming before 2026?
55% chance
33